When the war atmosphere escalates due to North Korea’s provocation, the stock market fluctuates, albeit for a short period of time.
For this reason, among stockbrokers, when North Korea provocations, there was a joke that ‘Jung Eun-i shot a shot’.
‘When North Korea provocations, stock prices go down. If this is a way I can benefit… … Do I have to hit a real shot?’
Short means selling a stock, betting on a falling market.
Representative short investment strategies include put options and short selling, but these are the domain of professional investors, and ordinary investors like me can buy KOSPI inverse products.
‘Anyone can predict that there will be no war. To make a sure profit, you need to know the exact timing of the decline.’
I try to set up my own timeline by forcibly pulling up the old memories that were faint.
1. North Korean soldiers planted wooden mines in the DMZ, seriously injuring two noncommissioned officers.
2. The government responds with loudspeaker broadcasting to North Korea.
3. North Korea fires at loudspeakers. The atmosphere of war escalates with the South Korean military’s counter-fire and fighter deployment, and North Korea’s threats.
4. US combat readiness.
5. North Korea lowers its tail and both sides agree.
The cases that have taken place so far are #1 and #2, and they must have already been reflected in the stock market.
If so, the timing I’m aiming for is the third incident that will happen next.
‘We have to do something before the North Koreans fire at the loudspeakers.’
When my thoughts reached this point, I suddenly heard a voice in my ear.
-hey! Woohyuk Shin! are you listening to me?
I forgot. I was on the phone with Park Tae-sik right now.
“uh? uh uh I am listening.”
– I hear you. You see, I was doing something else. Did a pretty nurse pass by?
“I am not you.”
Park Tae-sik’s deep sigh is heard over the phone.
-Anyway, it seems difficult to meet today. I smoked nonsense while looking at charts during the day. A lot of work has piled up. a mountain.
“Taesik, work right now is not important.”
-that’s right. work is not important My stock, which was bombed, is dozens of times more important than that.
“that… … I think it will get bombed more.”
-Do you want to keep saying negative things?
It’s not a false burning sound, but a real bombing is scheduled. But who would believe that he would say this?
“Come to the hospital at once. It’s really urgent.”
-what’s the matter? What’s going on?
“It’s a matter of life.”
The moment these words are finished, Park Tae-sik’s voice changes.
-okay. just wait there
* * *
The door to the hospital room opens violently and Park Tae-shik enters.
Seeing that he was dressed in a mess and gasping for breath, he must have come running as soon as he hung up the phone.
“Oh, are you here?”
When I waved my hand leisurely, Park Tae-sik put on an expression of amazement.
“what? Why are you so fine?”
“Can’t you be fine?”
“No, because they said it was urgent, I thought it was going to be some kind of major surgery.”
It is true that I used words that could be misunderstood. That way the guy will come out quickly.
“I told you. It’s just a slight concussion.”
“Then what did you say earlier?”
“Ah, that. It was because of the nicotine. I went down to the convenience store, and they say it’s a hospital, so they don’t sell cigarettes.”
“Shin Woo-hyuk, kill me… … .”
Seeing him shaking his fist, he’s really ready to hit it.
“Hey, I’m a patient.”
“I’m hospitalized anyway, so I’ll be treated elsewhere. Where do you like it? chest? stomach? Or is it just plain sideways?”
“Don’t play around, sit down. It’s true that life is at stake.”
As soon as I set the mood seriously, he also puts his fists down and pulls a chair.
“How much did you put in stocks?”
“Why are you asking that all of a sudden?”
“The life I was talking about includes your life, so keep quiet and answer.”
“that is… … .”
The guy mumbles for a while, then spreads four fingers.
“Did you put in 400 million? Where does the money come from?”
“At first, I started small, but I didn’t have enough money because I was swimming… … I paid a rather large loan.”
Park Tae-sik works at the teller of H Bank. So, whenever you need money, you could easily take out a loan.
By the way, I’ve heard stories of losing a lot of money with stocks before, but I never thought I’d put in such a large amount of money.
“As soon as the market opens tomorrow, shake it all up.”
“no. It’s already over minus 30%, so how do you subtract this? Now that this has happened, I will try to endure it a little longer.”
“Then it hits minus 60%.”
Park Tae-shik blinks his eyes and stares at my face.
“Why are you suddenly like this? A guy who doesn’t normally care about stocks.”
“I received an advanced piece of information. It’s a rumor related to the reason for North Korea’s provocation this time.”
“Ah, how do you know what the North Koreans are thinking that even the NIS doesn’t know about?”
Perhaps he thought I was joking around, so he waved his hand while giggling.
However, after I had been staring at her with a straight face until the end, she straightened her back and corrected her posture.
“What is the reason for the provocation?”
“They said it was because of China’s Victory Day event scheduled for September.”
“Victory Day?”
“Yes, because the Korean president decided to attend.”
Park Tae-sik raises his voice as soon as I finish my words.
“Nonsense! Korea and China are countries that even went to war. By the way, the president goes and serves as a bridesmaid? It’s never going to happen. never.”
“What if it was real?”
“Cheer up a little. Even if there are two sides of the sky, that won’t happen.”
I understand. At that time, I also never imagined that the Korean president would attend the Victory Day.
But that actually happened.
‘This is why you can’t say that I’m from the future. Even if I tell you, I’m sure you won’t believe me.’
After that, Park Tae-sik raised his fever by citing six more reasons why the president would not attend China’s Victory Day.
Then, as if he was tired of his own self, he moved the topic to the next level.
“good. Let’s concede one hundred times and assume that the president will attend the Victory Day.”
From noble mtl dot com
“I’m not saying I’m doing it, I’m attending.”
I’m not just going to attend, I’m going to sit next to the president and watch the military parade.
“What I mean is, what does that have to do with North Korea’s provocations?”
“Why not have a relationship? When South Korea and China get closer, North Korea is like isolation. So, I will continue to use my energy and try to create a variable.”
“What variable? War?”
“It won’t be until war, but um… … At least the U.S. Army will get it moving. That way, it will be difficult for the government to bring out a pro-China policy.”
I created a plausible hypothesis by slightly mixing my speculation with the actual event. This might be easier to believe than telling me I’m a regressor.
“… … .”
Park Tae-sik still didn’t believe it, but he seemed to take the current situation more seriously than before.
“If you don’t believe me, just help me.”
“How are you asking for help?”
“Because I’m thinking of making some investments with this opportunity.”
Park Tae-sik immediately grasps what I want and asks.
“How much do you need?”
“It’s more than one. Please, as much as you can pull.”
* * *
the next morning.
Loan guidance texts arrived almost at the same time as the bank computer opened.
[Customer Shin Woo-hyuk, preferential interest rate credit loan has been executed. Loan amount: KRW 120,000,000]
[Customer Shin Woo-hyuk, a negative bankbook loan exclusively for VIP customers has been executed. Loan amount: KRW 82,000,000]
[Shin Woo-hyuk customer’s power car vehicle mortgage loan has been executed. Loan amount: KRW 34,000,000]
Credit loan of 120 million won.
82 million won in negative bankbook.
Vehicle mortgage loan of 34 million won.
236 million won in bank loans alone. Adding to this the savings of 40 million won that I had accumulated, a total of 276 million won was raised.
Even though it was just a number stamped on the bankbook, the tension conveyed there was beyond imagination.
‘This is a bet you can’t lose. Let’s believe in the future I’ve seen.’
After loading, all the live ammunition went to the stock market.
My original plan was to go all-in on an inverse product betting on a stock price decline. That’s also the so-called ‘gob bus’ that pays twice as much money.
Unfortunately, however, there was no multiplier product at this time, and the inverse product had to pay a whopping 15.4% tax because the trading profit was judged as dividend income.
Disappointment of high tax burden and products without leverage.
In the end, I took a slight turn and decided to bet half even if the stock price rose.
When North Korea takes action, stock prices tend to go down, but stocks in some sectors rise on the contrary.
Part of that was defense stocks.
Bangsanju had already skyrocketed during the wooden box mine incident and then collapsed again. At this time, I selected only five stocks in order of stocks with high fluctuations.
“Okay, that was good.”
All preparations were completed in half a day. Now all you have to do is wait quietly until the time comes.
I’m about to lie down on the bed with the intention of closing my eyes for a while, but I can’t sleep because I’m worried about the sound I’ve been hearing since earlier.
month after month.
That sound was Park Tae-sik’s legs shaking.
“Can I not go to work?”
When I asked, Park Tae-sik said with his eyes fixed on his smartphone.
“I just threw it in half. I was sitting at the office and I couldn’t get anything out of my hands.”
“It doesn’t change anything just because you’re here.”
“Still, being here makes me less anxious.”
Park Tae-sik also invested in a similar way to me.
Of course, it is not as extreme as I am, and they say that they only invested up to what they could afford. Looking at what you’re doing, it doesn’t seem like that at all.
“Yesterday he said he didn’t believe me. Why did you change your mind overnight?”
“Since you rushed at me with a straight face, I did it by chance. There is a saying that you go to Gangnam with your friend.”
“In the stock market, the saying “following a friend to the Han River” is more famous.”
“I’m worried, so can you please stop saying that?”
The guy stares at the small phone screen again.
“By the way, the KOSPI is already down more than 3%. I haven’t done anything in North Korea yet.”
“I know.”
The KOSPI index went down and inverse made a profit, but at the same time, the defense stocks also went down slightly, so it’s not a big gain.
“Woohyuk. Aren’t you scared?”
“what?”
“If North Korea does nothing and the KOSPI continues to rebound… … We’re screwed.”
“Is there anything special? At that time, we should join hands and go check the water temperature in the Han River.”
“Miss, really. Don’t talk like that.”
The reaction comes right away, so it’s fun to tease.
Normally, I would have joked around and giggled more here, but it was not possible to do that now.
‘It’s not like this really goes without incident.’
My memory of North Korea’s second provocation in this situation was clear. But what if the future had changed?
I feel the low-lying anxiety rising up. I feel anxious just by looking at breaking news in Korea, so I look around even for foreign news articles.
About 10 minutes later, Park Tae-sik suddenly stands up from his seat.
“hey! hey! Woo Hyuk! fall out! Get out!”
He puts his smartphone screen in front of me.
The KOSPI index was going down. It’s not just going down, it’s getting stuck almost vertically.
‘It’s here.’
The TV news channels were already broadcasting breaking news with red subtitles.
[North Korea, shelling provocation at the DMZ… … Aim at the loudspeaker]