Dear Comrade Leader, Episode 257
Chapter 91. collapse
The success of the ‘Operation Malacca Lantern’ was immediately reported extensively by the Propaganda and Agitation Department on controlled broadcasts such as the Rodong Sinmun and Chosun Central Broadcasting.
The maritime sniper brigades that participated in the operation, and even the rescued crew members, all became heroes and returned safely to their homeland, where cheers, applause, and special promotion await.
The reaction within North Korea was also a reaction, but it also had a great repercussion internationally, and it was meaningful in that it showed the military capabilities of the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea that it had built up so far.
In particular, military experts, not just people passing by just looking at newspaper articles, were interested in the various tactical equipment and training that North Korea demonstrated in this operation, and above all, military technology with the direct victory flag as its representative.
And of course, it was South Korea and South Korea who viewed this interest in North Korea’s military technology not only as a line of interest, but with a sense of surprise and anticipation.
-Now it has become clear that our Republic of Korea must not depend on the US Forces Korea forever. Even now, if you don’t go on the self-reliant national defense and self-reliance route, you’ll be in big trouble.
Surprised by this series of events that occurred immediately after Roh Yun-hyun took office as president, South Korea immediately began work on defense reform.
If this ‘Defense Reform 2025’ is different from the past, the army, which has always been allocated a budget to strengthen artillery and armored forces, whenever there is an arms augmentation project under the pretext of ‘the day of the northern advance that never comes’ It was the fact that the budget was allocated first to the Air Force, not the Air Force.
– Realistically, North Korea is not going to try to swallow us up right now. Let’s devise a reform plan in the direction of buying more advanced tactical aircraft from the United States rather than the power to hit the North.
However, at a time when the country and abroad were excited about the success of the Malacca Lantern operation, Jeong-hwan, who can be said to be the hidden protagonist and the greatest contributor to the operation, was very worried.
The reason was, of course, that this year was 2008, and the economic catastrophe that was planned would befall the world.
“The problem is that it is impossible for any country to accurately predict the timing, aftermath, and scale… … .”
Shoot aa … .
In June 2008, in Pyongyang’s secretary’s office, where the rain suddenly began to pour down, Jeonghwan was wandering around the room, worrying.
That was his biggest concern.
The international financial market is an unpredictable battle for the forefront to the extent that it is easiest to realize the word “butterfly effect” (which is often abused even for completely unrelated phenomena).
In the history he knew, the collapse of the US real estate market brought a great recession around the world, and the rise of the US and China, but no one knew whether they would follow the same path this time.
Because of his variable, many things have already happened, from North Korea’s economic size, the geopolitical situation in East Asia, from the leader of the United States to the Sino-Afghan War, so many things have happened that are completely different from the original history. Isn’t that a difficult level?
How much such political and economic variables actually had an impact, and the result they would bring was a completely black box.
For example, if a financial crisis differs from its original history, it may have far less impact, or even none at all.
Of course, this is a fairly optimistic assumption, and in the worst case… … .
‘… … It could be much more serious. And of course the aftermath will also affect politics.’
In fact, it was the US politics that Jung-hwan was more worried about than the economic part.
If the financial crisis in the original history is reproduced, or if it gets worse, of course, the arrow will be poured on the current ruling powers, John McCain and the Republican Party of the United States.
And as the power of the United States declines significantly, the East Asia-Pacific front has no choice but to cut off its interest, and the story means that the current diplomatic value of North Korea as a buffer zone or bastion for the Chinese front against China will also decrease.
In this position, Jeonghwan, of course, has done his best to prevent a financial crisis in the United States as much as possible, and at least mitigate the damage.
However, to be honest, if you ask if such efforts have been successful, the answer is close to ‘no’ in reality.
“Maybe this is just a fundamental problem with financial capitalism itself, no, human greed. You always cross a line you shouldn’t cross.”
Junghwan muttered so bitterly, recalling the days of the Al Gore administration.
In 1999, just after the burst of the IT bubble, the Al Gore administration was surprised by the sudden economic crisis and was contemplating a new economic growth engine.
The manufacturing industry had already left the United States to Asia, including China and North Korea, so all that remained was the financial industry. held the strands towards the support of the
And it was the Wall Street lobbyists who, as if waiting, keenly penetrated this niche, whose primary goal was to repeal the ‘Glass-Steagall Act’, which aimed to separate commercial and investment banks. .
Knowing that the repeal of this bill allowed large Wall Street banks to enter retail banking, securities, insurance, and real estate investment unrestrictedly and, furthermore, it was one of the major causes of the financial crisis, Jung Hwan said, They did their best to prevent the repeal of this bill, but to no avail.
The East Asian Balanced Security Foundation basically supported free marketism and Western-style democracy in both economic and political terms.
It was almost unreasonable for such a foundation to support the continuation of financial regulations during the Roosevelt Great Depression, no matter how clever the director, Thatcher.
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No, the reason Jeong-hwan had a gut feeling that the Glass-Steagall bill could not be stopped was because he knew it was close to the mouth-watering dream of all the big Wall Street banks.The development of a new financial services market was desired by Wall Street financiers who are regularly designated as the mastermind behind the movement of the United States and the world in Masonic conspiracy theories, and the fact that the financial capital they hold and shake has exerted enormous influence on Washington from before is all there is to it. people knew
In the United States, where the amount of money is a pressure that can be exerted on politics, resisting this undisputed mighty power is like beating a rock with an egg.
In the end, as in the original history, in 1999, the Glass Stegall Act was abolished, and thanks to this, even as of 2008, large banks on Wall Street, including Lehman Brothers, sold their own derivatives, such as poisoned glasses and time bombs, to American consumers to their heart’s content. was making a profit.
Fortunately, the bill was passed during the days of Al Gore, a Democrat rather than a Republican.
If John McCain had become president sooner, he would have been even harder to resist, and he would have held himself accountable for the impending financial crisis, as he joined the Republican Party in a bill backed by Wall Street, which influences both Democrats and Republicans. That is.
‘For now, I’ve done everything I can from my point of view… … I just hope the fire doesn’t start in the wrong place. … … Most representatively, China or China… … Or somewhere like China!’
Although the United States could not do anything about it, Peony Holdings, where Jung Hwan himself is directly involved in management, has long strictly restricted investments in high-risk, high-yield derivatives such as CDOs, regardless of country, regardless of country.
As it was Peony Holdings, which had been pursuing an aggressive investment orientation since before, this ‘incomprehensible measure’ was often talked about from within, and there were often complaints that it was too conservative compared to other financial companies, so it lacked competitiveness. It was a thing.
And in the case of China, Jeong Hwan, who predicted that China would gradually enter an unpredictable path during his last meeting with Hu Jintao, tried to avoid forming an economic dependency relationship by limiting investment in China by North Korean companies to a certain level as much as possible. have done
However, once the market economy system has been introduced, it is necessary to respect the autonomy of companies and the private sector to some extent. He never welcomed the fact that he was trying to stop him.
In the end, the majority of North Korean companies have reached a point where they cannot avoid being affected by the Chinese economic situation.
rumble rumble… … !!!
The sound of thunder and thunder from afar shook the inside of the clerk’s room.
It seemed that the rainy season would not end with just the rain.
‘I did everything I could. Now all that’s left is to hope that if a storm comes, it will pass with as little damage as possible.’
In this 21st century, where the whole world is living next to each other through capital, it was not clear whether this would completely avoid the damage.
This was almost inevitable considering North Korea’s economic development and geopolitical position before Jeonghwan’s ability problem, but he had to admit that he was feeling powerless.
Eventually, he shook his head and sat down on the chair in the secretary’s office.
For the first time, Junghwan was feeling the fatigue and skepticism he had never felt before.
It felt like a fate from which he could not escape no matter what he was waiting for with his mouth open in front of him.
In fact, as the saying goes, “The truth is, no matter how much you prepare and plan, you cannot predict and respond to all crises.”
The only difference was that the first epicenter of the crisis erupted in China, not the US real estate market as in the original history.
* * *
The disaster began to show its signs in June, a little earlier than September 2008, when the financial crisis of the original history struck.
In 2008, the Chinese real estate market was growing.
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No, actually, this is not a story limited to 2008. Since Deng Xiaoping’s reform and opening up, real estate in China has always been growing, no, it has been a booming economy that can be said to have overheated.The people’s income never decreased, even though the growth rate slowed down little by little, and on a wide continent, new office buildings, houses, apartments, and roads were always being built and sold somewhere around the first-tier cities in the east. could not have been
Even when an airplane flew to Shanghai in 2001 and made a huge mess, the real estate market only grew rather than rigid, so it was not difficult to guess how much bubble was stuck in the Chinese real estate market.
In addition, the political world, more precisely, the Chinese Communist Party, played a big part in this real estate frenzy, but they had to somehow maintain the growth rate, which is gradually slowing down day by day, so it was necessary to stimulate the economy even with real estate, not with manufacturing, which was slowly growing.
And, precisely, the ‘work and farm family’ policy of President Bo Si-rai of the Prince’s Party, which had been in power for several years, made the fuse of this time bomb even shorter.
-It is no exaggeration to say that in China, a building is built every day, and a city is built every month, every month. However, the cities are all empty, and the apartments and the people who have to live in the city, to be precise, the peasants and peasants sleep on the cold streets. Why is this happening?
-The construction industry is always booming, isn’t it because the peasants do not have the funds to purchase the real estate constructed in this way?
-Then, if a state-owned bank such as the People’s Bank of China takes the lead in lending money to these people as well as people with lower middle and lower incomes, holding the house they bought as collateral, and making them repay over 10 or 20 years, the real estate bubble and peasant labor They will be able to solve their housing problems at the same time. In the near future, a middle-class, one-household working family will be realized.
At first glance, it was not a story that made sense.
However, as always when politics intervene excessively in the economy, there was a serious and fundamental problem with this peasant family policy.
– It is not a bad idea if China’s economic growth continues. However, if economic growth slows down and farmers and workers are unable to repay the money lent by the banks, state-owned banks will be burdened with huge amounts of real estate and non-performing loans in an instant. How are they going to take responsibility for that?
… … It was a risky policy with a strong populist nature that could easily come up with criticism, but it was a criticism that was not heard by President Bo Si Lai and his aides, who advocated ‘Chinese Chavez’.
One of China’s most chronic problems since ancient times, the problem of capital being swayed by political logic that lacks the professionalism that should be called ‘one body’ beyond political and economic ties, has manifested itself in its worst form. .
In the end, Bo Si Lai dubbed it ‘China Consensus’ and actively pushed for it.
At first, the Xi Jinping faction, who was hesitant about the danger of side effects, had no choice but to agree to it in order not to fall behind Bo Bo Lai and not to be thrown out of the internal power struggle when the people who were marginalized from economic growth cheered for Bo Shi Lai’s reform policy.
State-run banks, which are no different from the Prince’s Party, took the lead in this work-and-peasant policy.
Proof of assets and proof of income, which were the minimum standards and regulations that must be met for a home loan, have been greatly eased or eliminated.
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Now, even a rural bachelor living in the countryside, earning less than 2 million won a year, could get a loan and buy a house in a new city that is being built every day.Even factory workers who had just entered society were able to get a 20-year mortgage from a state-owned bank to buy an overflowing house.
Everyone seemed to be happy, and the 1.4 billion people seemed to be calling for hurray for Bo Bo Lai and the Communist Party, saying that all Chinese are now wealthy thanks to President Bo Shi Rai.
But before long, just before the 2008 Beijing Olympics, the collapse began.
Eventually, the storm began to come.