40 – The Crumbling Balance
November 5, 1914. Berlin, the capital of the German Empire.
Recent diplomatic achievements had been quite satisfactory. Bringing Sweden over to our side completely, ensuring the safety of the Baltic Sea, was one of the most remarkable accomplishments we had achieved recently. In the long run, our goal was to bring them into the alliance as well.
“Your Majesty, a message from the Roman Embassy.”
“Bring it in.”
The Emperor opened the door himself. An assistant entered with the message and placed it on my desk.
It wasn’t a message from the ambassador, but rather a dispatch from Lieutenant Rundstedt, whom I had personally dispatched.
As I skimmed through the decoded message, my eyebrows furrowed.
“The Italian military is considering joining the Triple Entente?”
I couldn’t help but chuckle at the absurdity. They say Italians have a great sense of humor, but it seemed they were trying to bring that humor into diplomacy as well.
Well, to put it bluntly, Italy wasn’t an ally but rather a potentially unreliable enemy, maintaining a position similar to that of a hostile nation within the Triple Alliance. And yet, they were advocating for an alliance and considering joining the war?
Emotionally, it was an unpleasant proposition, but it didn’t mean their participation in the war would be detrimental. If Italy were to join the Allies, we would gain a new route of advancement, replacing the troublesome Austro-Italian border.
Although the border between Italy and France was also treacherous, with numerous sections nestled in the Alps, expanding the front line itself was advantageous. Even though we had more troops than France, a longer front line worked to our advantage.
The Italian army itself had expanded considerably, from 25 divisions in July to 36 divisions now. In terms of rank alone, the Italian army had a significant size that could not be ignored.
“It may be amusing, but if the Italians were to participate, we wouldn’t be able to refuse. Practicality takes precedence over emotions.”
I had considered accepting Italy’s proposal to join the war. The issue would be dividing the spoils, but it would be advantageous for Germany to move in a direction that would minimize casualties.
Of course, it was difficult to determine definitively whether Italy would side with Germany. Italy had the ability to pretend to be on our side outwardly, while hiding a different intention internally.
I organized the instructions to be sent to Lüntschütz.
“There is no need to pay attention to the unofficial attitudes and intentions expressed by the Kingdom of Italy. It is not too late to act once everything has been confirmed through official channels. Continue the existing operations as planned.”
I had no intention of contacting Italy first regarding this matter. We were not in a position desperate enough to reach out to Italy. It was Italy that was in a more desperate situation.
So, if we consistently ignored their unofficial overtures while appearing indifferent, there was a high possibility that they would attempt proper contact from their side. Holding a genuine agreement such as a treaty to divide France, rather than meaningless things like letters from the Prime Minister or talks of military participation.
After organizing the memo to be sent to Lüntschütz, I also wrote a letter to the Chief of the Rome Embassy, Hans von Ploto.
“First, focus on collecting and organizing trends and rumors in Roman diplomacy. Second, confirm if there is any discord between the negotiations among the three countries and, if so, what it is, within a short period of time.”
I sent the documents and quietly pondered.
If Italy really became an allied nation and participated in the war, calculations ran through my mind about what and how much we could give them.
There were three main candidate regions.
Savoy and Nice, which Italy had mobilized to receive support from France during the Unification War, and Corsica, which France had received from Geneva, as well as Tunisia, where many Italians resided.
That was about the extent of the French land that Italy could claim as its sphere of influence.
Logically speaking, giving them all of that was out of the question.
So, it was necessary to hand over the land in a way that would create as much emotional discord between France and Italy as possible, while maintaining a confrontation, just like how France used the Polish corridor to create a conflict between Germany and Poland in the Treaty of Versailles.
I slowly looked down at the map of France, lost in thought.
The next day, I received a message from Ambassador Hans von Ploto, who is stationed in Rome, Italy. Since Lüntschett mentioned the possibility of Italy’s participation in the Tripartite Alliance, I carefully reviewed the contents.
“So Duke Aosta attempted contact from behind the scenes? It seems like a significant figure has moved more than expected.”
It seemed that the rumors of the Italian military considering joining the Tripartite Alliance were not baseless. Duke Aosta’s actions were evidence that he had connections even with the royal family.
I checked the conditions for Italy’s participation, as confirmed by the ambassador. Although it was an unofficial proposal, it was obvious that there would be little difference from an official offer. All agreements were negotiated behind closed doors before being finalized.
I called upon the Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs, Chimerman.
If it were an official negotiation matter, I would have consulted with Foreign Minister Gotlip. However, when it came to clandestine contacts like this, Chimerman was much more experienced.
While waiting for Chimerman to arrive at the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, I calculated the pros and cons in my own way, turning my thoughts this way and that.
About 30 minutes later, Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs Chimerman entered the conference room.
After sending away the officials, I showed Chimerman the message.
He confirmed the conditions for Italy’s participation and shook his head, seeming a bit perplexed.
“Your Majesty, it would be best to flatly reject this issue. They’re even requesting mediation for the Istria Peninsula and Trentino, in addition to Tunisia, Corsica, Savoy, and Nice that Austria already has. The Italians’ greed is going too far. It would be better to draw a strong line from the beginning.”
At first, I also thought that Italy was being too greedy.
However, negotiations were originally meant to be drawn out and gradually reconciled. Considering the nature of pre-negotiations, it was difficult to say that Italy was being overly ambitious. They probably didn’t think they would be able to take everything for themselves.
“What do you think would be a reasonable compromise?”
“We must exclude any mediation for Austria. It’s not even urgent for Italy to provide assistance, but if we try to pressure Vienna by urging Rome to reach an agreement, the international community will laugh at us.”
“That’s true.”
“Secondly, even if we consider Corsica, Nice, and Savoy, those are territories that have already passed into France’s official jurisdiction. France won’t simply hand them over. So, the only thing we can promise is Corsica and Tunisia.”
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“Corsica and Tunisia.”
That alone was not a small piece of land.
However, it would be far from enough to satisfy Italy’s expansionist ambitions. Imperialist nations always feel a hunger, no matter how much land they devour.
“If we give France a certain number of warships and merchant vessels as war reparations, the balance will be somewhat restored,” Chimerman said.
Chimerman said that Italy didn’t need to give much in return.
“We balance the scales with compensation ships. It’s not a bad idea. But can’t Rome break the deal with the conditions we have presented?”
“As long as we believe we have the upper hand, the Italians won’t easily dismiss the conditions we have proposed. There is a clear difference between gaining nothing and gaining ‘something’.”
That was a valid point.
Chimerman’s advice was not much different from my own thoughts.
“Well, I don’t need to take a submissive position here when I think about it. Even if there is room for renegotiation later, it’s better to come out strong.”
Just because they were absent didn’t mean we couldn’t win the war.
I confirmed my decision to offer Corsica, Tunisia, and a small portion of France’s Guangdong concessions and compensation ships as the maximum concession to Rome.
The scales of justice were returned to Rome.
*
Embassy of the French Republic in the capital of the Kingdom of Italy, Rome.
Camille Barré, the French Ambassador to Rome, was lost in thought with a pipe in his mouth. The day before, he had met with Ambassador Sarand, who dismissed the rumors circulating in society, denying that Rome would lean towards the Triple Alliance.
Camille Barré did not trust Sarand’s words. Since 1897, he had served as the ambassador in Rome and had dealt with many matters behind closed doors with Italian politicians. There was a reasonable possibility that the Italians had conspired with their old friends behind closed doors this time as well.
And there were also suspicions.
Although the Italian Prime Minister denied it, there had been subtle changes in the attitude of the recent kingdom’s cabinet. When the Triple Alliance was not proactive in negotiations for the return of Italia irredenta, Foreign Minister Sidney Sonnino, who had taken a position in favor of the Triple Entente, was replaced. It was a signal.
They had replaced the king and Sarand with Vittorio Emanuele Orlando, who was quite conciliatory towards Austria.
The meaning of this was clear.
At the very least, Italy was undoubtedly trying to send a friendly signal to the alliance.
Should I just ignore this situation?
Of course, that was impossible.
Turning a country belonging to the coalition into an enemy in such a disadvantageous situation was nothing short of a disaster for the Russo-British negotiation.
“But how can we change the course of this flow?”
The ambassador scattered thick smoke and pushed the information report to one side of the desk.
“Your Excellency. It’s Morris from the Second Bureau.”
“Come in.”
Camille Barre flicked the ash off his pipe and waved his hand to disperse the smoke.
Soon, Lieutenant Morris Henry Gush, dressed neatly, entered and saluted.
“No need for that. Let’s get straight to the point.”
“Yes. We have received information that Italy is using Duke Aosta to make contact with the alliance.”
“Source?”
“We bought an Italian friend working at the Austrian embassy. He said he confirmed the information while cleaning the ambassador’s room.”
“Then it’s almost certain.”
The ambassador’s brow furrowed.
If a figure like Duke Aosta had moved, then the Italian royal family, at the very least, and the Minister of Defense, Sarand, would undoubtedly have known about this fact. Yet, thinking about that audacious face that shamelessly denied the truth, it was infuriating.
“We also roughly confirmed the demands. It included Savoy, Nice, and Tunisia, which are currently occupied by Austria.”
“Unbelievable.”
As a Frenchman, he had no choice but to say that.
How dare Italy negotiate with French territory?
And they even made a treaty with the Republic, practically forming an alliance underwater?
Camille Barre felt anger, but quickly regained his composure. He spoke to the lieutenant with pursed lips.
“Did you report this to the Ministry of Defense?”
“No, sir. We believe it’s better to have fewer people who know about it if possible.”
“That’s not a wrong idea. No, that thought is correct.”
The ambassador thought that if this information were reported hastily, it could provoke an overreaction from the homeland. If that happened, Italy would be turned into an enemy without any room to maneuver.
That would be troublesome.
From the position of fighting against the German Empire and the collapse of the nation, it was necessary to carefully consider everything. If Italy had just given up land in the past or had lingering feelings about losing in competition, Germany had been prepared to finish off France.
Just by looking at the August plans obtained through unknown channels, one could easily guess Germany’s ambition. Holbeck had plans to tear apart not only the French colonial empire but also all the lands east of the Vosges Mountains, as well as Belgium and the entire northeastern part of France bordering it.
Lately, there were even rumors that they wanted to turn the Republic itself into a puppet state, placing a German prince on the throne or dividing the country. It was not an impossible story, as Germany could ignore Britain’s restrictions once it held the hegemony of Europe.
Considering all that, it was a wise choice to make concessions to Italy and turn them into allies or leave them neutral.
The ambassador stroked his mustache and then looked at Maurice.
“Did you report to the Second Bureau?”
“Yes. I sent a report just a moment ago.”
“What do you think their response will be?”
Maurice was an intelligence officer but also an excellent operative.
He easily anticipated the actions of the Second Bureau.
“The Italian side will start a sabotage operation to prevent the enemy from getting involved.”
“Even assassinating Sarandra?”
“I won’t engage in such dangerous work.”
Just looking at the incident where Serbia’s Black Hand assassinated Archduke Ferdinand of Austria, it was too risky. If Austria had acted swiftly, no European power would have sided with Serbia. The assassination provided a dangerous pretext that left the opponent with no choice but to retaliate.
The diplomat wasn’t unaware of this. His question was merely to confirm if the Second Bureau had such dangerous thoughts.
“Then what will you do?”
“I will support those hostile to the Triple Entente. And it is my job to keep an eye on such individuals.”
“If they have such tendencies, they must be quite nationalistic.”
The diplomat, having spent a long time in Italy, quickly understood what was being said based on the general nuances.
“Yes.”
“Can I see who these individuals are?”
“Of course.”
Maurice handed over the documents he had prepared in advance. It seemed as though he had anticipated such a question.
Camille Barre glanced through the list handed to him by Maurice and raised an eyebrow when he came across a peculiar name.
“Benito Mussolini? Isn’t he the prominent red of the Italian Socialist Party? A typical left-wing intellectual who advocates neutrality, and now he’s a nationalist?”
The diplomat was also familiar with the name Benito Mussolini. Mussolini had become the editor of the Socialist Party’s publication, Avanti, surpassing many prominent socialists.
“You didn’t know? Mussolini recently started a magazine and published articles condemning the Austro-Hungarian Empire’s acts of aggression.”
“Is that so?”
It wasn’t surprising.
Upon reflection, Mussolini’s writings had a strange mix of nationalist colors. Considering that, one could say he had found a path that suited his own inclinations.
“This individual’s activities are worth noting. He has started advocating for the restoration movement, aligning himself with Cesare Battisti, who champions nationalism. They openly talk about reclaiming the Adriatic coast territory occupied by Austria.”
“Even though he knows that war is not in our favor, there must be a reason for him to talk like that.”
“I believe that if Italy enters the war, the situation will change drastically. And if the war drags on, there will be expectations that Britain will assist in the Triple Entente negotiations.”
“I can understand that way of thinking. In any case, the Intelligence Bureau plans to support this Monsieur Musolini.”
“That’s correct. If we provide sufficient funds for mass mobilization and media activities, it will be helpful for our side. At the very least, I expect it will prevent Sarrandras from making any mistakes.”
“Well, then there’s nothing more to ask for. Thank you for the information.”
“No, Your Highness. I’m glad I could be of assistance.”
Through his conversation with Maurice, the Duke realized that the Second Bureau was preparing much more than he had expected. Under normal circumstances, they wouldn’t have collected information and prepared for covert operations against friendly countries, but today it became clear that their preparations were justified.
“A covert operation.”
If Camille Barre allowed the activities of the Second Bureau, he knew that ultimately he would be responsible for it.
But there was no other way to prevent the dangerous moves of the Kingdom of Italy.