Unprecedented betting
The ABC (America Business Center), headed by John Owen Brennan, who has worked as the CIA director for a long time, is living up to its name, collects, analyzes, and provides various information necessary for corporate management to companies in need.
To this end, it opened offices in more than 100 countries around the world and hired thousands of local employees to collect various information.
In some ways, it is the largest company that Eugene directly manages.
Of course, it costs a lot of money, but it is well worth it.
The best use of the information ABC provides are the investment companies run by Joanna and Williams.
For investment products such as stocks, bonds, spot, and futures, profits and losses differ depending on how quickly the relevant information is obtained than others.
With assets under management now well over trillions, a very small difference, or only a few percent loss or gain, translates into billions of dollars in profit or loss.
Even though Eugene has knowledge about the future, there are limits.
In detail, I can’t remember what happened in what year, month, and day.
So, what Eugene can do is to set a rough strategy.
Since the oil price is highly likely to rise for the time being, we suggest a direction to bet on the rise and focus on call options.
The traders working at Joanna and William’s manager are based on the top-down direction, and they make the best investment by collecting the market conditions and additional information at that time.
At this time, information about the product sent from ABC is an important basis for each trainer to make a decision.
So even if ABC was spending billions of dollars a year, it was well worth paying Eugene.
Moreover, it was satisfactory enough in terms of reliability and speed of information.
In any sense, it can be said that it is an indispensable institution for Eugene, which manages huge funds that exceed the national budget.
“Is it a dangerous disease?”
Reading John Brannon’s report, Eugene asked.
It’s not often that John comes and reports in person. That meant that John was making the judgment that it was important.
“I’m not quite sure yet. However, not only local governments but also central governments seem to be paying close attention. It is probably due to the experience of SARS, a severe acute respiratory syndrome that terrorized China in 2003. Moreover, last November, there was a plague outbreak in Inner Mongolia and the people were engulfed in fear of the plague.
“If it is really similar to SARS, we have to analyze what the impact will be.”
“I have already put a request for analysis to New York University.”
As Eugene’s base is in New York, he has maintained a good relationship by donating small donations from time to time to New York University, a leading university in the United States.
“It would be necessary to analyze the case of an infectious disease spreading not only in China but also around the world from various angles.”
“of course. We will publish a report that predicts the full economic and social impact as soon as possible.”
It was still before any media outlets in China reported about the disease for Eugene to receive a prediction report on an infectious disease outbreak in Wuhan, China.
On November 29, 2019, the first outbreak was reported and only a few days later, the Chinese media briefly mentioned the infectious disease for the first time.
But most of the world didn’t even pay much attention to the disease.
With the exception of China’s health authorities, only Eugene’s office was considering various scenarios for a new disease outbreak.
“If it is highly contagious at the level of SARS, it has the potential to cause major global problems.”
From a few days later, experts from each field gathered in one place and offered various opinions on the spread and impact of the infectious disease that occurred in China, trying to predict the future.
“Since the 2000s, new infectious diseases have been occurring periodically. Diseases such as SARS in 2003, H1N1 influenza in 2009, and Middle East Respiratory Syndrome in 2015 continued to spread. And while they all had short-term effects, none of them had a global impact like the Hong Kong flu or the Spanish flu.”
However, no one could have predicted how much this disease would have a huge impact on human life.
Most expected hundreds of thousands to millions of patients and hundreds of deaths at best.
“As there have already been several epidemics of infectious diseases, the Chinese government is expected to take quick action. In the case of infectious diseases, early measures are most effective. There have been no confirmed cases in the United States yet, but I believe that the US government will take appropriate measures when cases begin to develop.”
Scholars were confident that there would be an appropriate response from the Chinese and US governments.
But they were all wrong. The Wuhan health authorities reported on the disease two weeks after the appearance of the infected person, the epidemiological investigation took place a month later, and the Chinese Centers for Disease Control and Prevention declared emergency measures 40 days later.
In the meantime, the Chinese government has been putting more effort into keeping the situation from being known to the outside, rather than trying to evolve the situation early.
It was even faster to prosecute a doctor who shared information about an infectious disease outbreak in Wuhan for spreading false information.
As a result, it was only a month after the incident occurred that the Korean media reported on a new infectious disease in China.
“The infection rate seems to be faster than expected. It is said that the citizens of Wuhan are trembling in fear.”
Still, for Eugene’s office, the situation in China was the fastest coming up.
It was possible to check the chaotic situation in Wuhan and the government’s media control in almost real time.
However, no one was sure how far this new disease would spread.
“It is expected that this infectious disease will have a significant impact on the international economy to some extent. It will depend on the size, but if the number of infected people increases to the level of hundreds of thousands, the stock markets of each country are likely to fall by about 10% in six months.”
It wasn’t until mid-January that the Chinese government recognized for the first time that the disease could be transmitted from person to person.
However, Eugene’s office was already aware that the disease was completely human-to-human, and that it may have spread to the United States.
“So, are you saying that the epidemic in China could also affect the economy in the United States?”
Ivanka and Kushner, who came to spend a brief weekend in Washington, also provided the information they had obtained so far.
The US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention would have provided some information anyway, but Eugene had no intention of hiding the information she knew.
“Worst case, you have to keep in mind the possibility of a recession this year.”
“Well… … .”
Kushner frowned. Because it was never good news.
Moreover, there is going to be a presidential election at the end of understanding. This is no welcome news for the Trump administration, which is seeking re-election.
If a recession really happened, it was clear that the otherwise tough elections would become more difficult.
“There will be reports from the Korea Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, but it would be better to take precautionary measures.”
“It’s difficult to scare you like that, haha. I think the Chinese government will handle it well.”
Kushner did not appear to have any intention of making this agenda an important matter of state affairs.
Of course, Eugene expected that too. In fact, it was the greatest tragedy that these people were in power in the United States.
Kushner and Ivanka gave some hints to the Trump administration, but to no avail.
Worth noting, Trump, who has been attracting aggression through various issues throughout his tenure, has been facing impeachment proceedings over the Ukraine scandal, despite his understanding, since January.
Trump was just spending all his spare time just defending his political attacks and blaming his opponents.
“The situation isn’t very serious, so let’s bet on the economy going down.”
Although a great disaster was approaching the world, it was a perfect investment opportunity for Eugene.
“The spread of an infectious disease cannot be avoided. I don’t think the Trump administration will be able to respond properly.”
“It’s sad.”
Because she had seen Kushner’s attitude with her own eyes, Joanna was able to foresee the future to some extent.
“I can’t help it. All we can do is do what we can.”
“You can bet on the decline of all stock markets around the world, including the US stock market.”
“I guess so.”
By mid-January, an expected scenario has already been released, and an appropriate investment plan has been established.
“I’m going to put as much money as I can into the fall of the US and Chinese stocks.”
Joanna was also a woman who enjoyed betting as much as Eugene, or in some ways, much more daring than Eugene.
In Eugene’s past life, Joanna has created an investment company that competes for the top spot on Wall Street with her own strength, without Eugene’s future knowledge as she is now.
And now, Joanna has absolute trust in Eugene’s eyes more than anyone else in the world.
In late January, Joanna’s team began betting on the decline in the US stock market in a variety of ways.
Betting on futures, indices, options, and insurance, using considerable leverage.
“This is the biggest bet I have ever made.”
“Are you afraid?”
“A little. haha… … . Even a 10% increase is bankruptcy. And when we fall, New York falls.”
Hundreds of billions of dollars of assets were used in Joanna’s bets, and when you factor in leverage, it was over $1 trillion.
A trillion-dollar bankruptcy is an event large enough to stumble not only Wall Street, but also the American economy.
“But if we win again… … No, I will definitely win.”
Joanna made up her mind again and said.
“It will be more profitable than what we have made so far. It seems like it will be difficult for me to fall asleep today.”
Betting on more than $1 trillion at a time is, and will never be, a difficult bet.
And Eugene was confident of a perfect victory this time as well.
“And from tomorrow, instruct all employees to wear masks to work.”
Eugene did not want any of her precious human resources to be sacrificed in vain in this situation.
“A mask? ah! It is the most effective way to prevent infectious diseases.”
“Maybe the contagion has already begun to spread in New York.”
“I see. I can’t be bothered by such an illness during an important job.”
Eugene’s instructions were delivered to all employees as hurriedly as a trillion-dollar bet.
If you do not wear a mask, you are not allowed to go to work. The most advanced preventive measures were beginning.