The Saudi oil minister addressed the deputy minister.
“What is the reaction of member countries?”
The vice minister said with a confident expression.
“Everyone is positive. We’re not the only ones concerned about a loss of market share from Venezuela’s oil.”
Even though they are members of OPEC, they do not want to see Venezuela doing well and are taking Saudi Arabia’s side in this game of chicken out of fear that their countries may suffer damage.
“good. By the way, have you figured out how long the Seron group will last?”
“For now, the Seron Group is supporting the whole of Venezuela alone. By purchasing ultra-heavy crude oil, which has no value, it compensates the refiners for their profits, not only making them lose money, but also filling Venezuela’s financial shortfall. You probably don’t know it, but you’re taking a huge loss.”
“So how long can you last?”
At that, the vice minister looked at him slightly and said.
“As long as Han Ji-hyeok’s will is clear, it is the financial power of the Ceron Group that determines it, but the Ceron Group is an unlisted company, so its financial structure is shrouded in mystery. How much is your sales and how much are your cash equivalents, and so on. To estimate, sales are expected to be approximately 70 trillion won or more and cash assets are expected to be considerable, but the exact figure is only a guess…”
The minister frowned and said.
“So you don’t know?”
“···That’s right.”
“Were the Saudis so incompetent that they barely got any private company information?”
Then the vice minister spoke in an urgent voice.
“Still, if the current situation continues, no matter how long it is, we will not be able to last more than half a year. Because of the revenue preservation given to the refinery, you will be suffering a huge loss.”
“Half a year, half a year, right? good.”
The oil minister said with a confident expression.
“For those who are going to run out in just half a year, attacking. I will take this opportunity to teach you clearly that force is not everything. good. look out.”
Just when I was about to end the meeting like that.
“Minister!”
A subordinate came into the minister’s office and said with a shocked expression.
“Beh, Venezuela has announced plans to increase production by 1.7 million barrels per day!”
To say that they will increase production more than Saudi Arabia, which increased production by 1.5 million barrels.
Originally, it would be meaningless to increase the production of extra-heavy oil in a situation where oil prices have fallen like now, but now, such extra-heavy oil is being distributed with Saeron making up for profitability.
“Yi, Han Ji -hyuk is a baby!”
It takes time to increase production by 1.7 million barrels, but above all, a huge amount of money is consumed.
A large-scale construction project that would cost close to 20 trillion won in Korean money just to build a drilling facility worth about 1.7 million barrels and to have the infrastructure to move the oil pumped up there through pipes.
Of course, since Venezuela, which is extremely poor, is not a project that can be carried out on its own, this announcement was tantamount to the will of the Seron Group.
The situation is literally in the middle of the day, responding to Saudi Arabia’s increased production attack with increased production.
The minister glared at the vice minister and said.
“what? Will you leave in half a year? Those who would be out of business in half a year spend tens of billions of dollars building drilling facilities!?”
Then, the embarrassed vice minister hurriedly said,
“Ho, isn’t it just pretending to drill? As long as it takes time to build a drilling facility, isn’t that money spent all at once?”
“You don’t even understand what the problem is?! Aside from the investment cost, the problem is that this will cause oil prices to drop further! They are still suffering huge losses, but will they voluntarily suffer even greater damage by lowering oil prices? This is tantamount to a declaration that Han Ji-hyeok is relaxed enough to face our attack, but don’t you understand this simple thing?”
“Ah… I’m sorry.”
The minister said with a cold expression.
“Anyway, Han Ji-hyeok, let’s try this, right? good. We also announced plans to increase production! Let’s see who dies first!”
*
Venezuela, which announced plans to increase production, did indeed start building drilling facilities.
Of course, the construction period was extended like crazy.
It is a large-scale project that requires 20 trillion won to complete everything, and when the real oil explodes, the damage will be out of control.
“Oil price… 35 dollars.”
When Venezuela announced an increase in production and began construction, OPEC also announced an increase in production by 1 million barrels as if it could not be defeated.
Oil prices fell from $50 to $35 after both sides announced an increase in production.
I said with a smirk.
“At this rate, the music will come out soon, right?”
Saudi Arabia will still be relaxed.
Because Saudi Arabia’s crude oil break-even point is $20.
But not other countries.
“Right now, there are only three countries that sell crude oil without losing money… Saudi Arabia, Iran, and Egypt.”
A total of 14 oil-producing countries are members of OPEC.
However, those three countries are the only countries that can generate profits even at the current level of oil prices.
Even those three countries do not see any loss even if they sell, but considering the government spending budget originally set for high oil prices, they are also suffering huge losses.
To put it simply, it means that an office worker who used to spend 200 on living expenses on a monthly salary of 300 has become short of living expenses because the income of an office worker who used to spend 100 per month was cut by a third.
It’s not negative like the other 11 countries, but it’s true that it’s more difficult than before.
Anyway, what if the cost of living is so low?
It would be best to reduce the cost of living, but a country that has maintained its power by sprinkling money from oil sales to the people will reduce government spending?
It can’t be.
Of course, you have no choice but to release the money you have accumulated.
The key to this game of chicken is that the person whose bank account is empty first loses after each other gnaws at each other’s bank account.
And in that respect, my salary and bankbook are much lower than OPEC, but the cost of living is overwhelmingly lower than OPEC, so it’s worth trying.
“I need to drop more oil.”
I picked up my cell phone and called Deokbae Kim.
-Yes, Chairman.
“Go ahead with the loan.”
The first large-scale loan of the Seron Group, which has been operating without debt.
-···All right.
“Instead, keep it as quiet as possible so that it is not known to the outside world. Did you know?”
It’s such a huge amount and we’re currently playing a game of chicken with OPEC, so it will be known someday, but we have to delay it as much as we can.
– I’ll proceed right away.
“okay.”
Funds will be raised right away as everything has already been discussed with the bank.
Then, the money will be used to increase production further, causing oil prices to drop even more.
“You guys in Saudi Arabia have never sold at a loss, have you? Give it a try. I’ll make you feel that way.”
*
Venezuela has announced a plan to increase production by 2 million barrels this time, as if to counteract Saudi Arabia’s second production increase plan.
Of course, drilling facilities are still under construction, so actual production has not yet gone, but if all of Venezuela’s announcements come true, Venezuela will overtake Egypt and become the world’s third-largest oil exporter, producing 5 million barrels per day, causing international oil prices to go crazy again. shakes like
Oil prices have now plunged to the early $20s, beyond the $30 mark.
Then, people cheered, saying that the era of low oil prices had arrived, but oil-producing countries were literally choking and were on the verge of turning their eyes.
“It’s $22 a barrel. One barrel is 159 liters, so 1 liter is $0.14. But do you know that? The price of 1 liter of bottled water sold at Korean supermarkets is $0.20.”
The oil minister of Nigeria, an OPEC member and Africa’s largest oil producer with 2.3 million barrels a day, said, raising blood.
“If you are going to sell crude oil at a price that is less than bottled water, why are you selling crude oil! It’s enough to just draw water and sell it!”
Of course, it makes no sense to directly compare the final consumer price of bottled water with the price of crude oil, but it was no different than saying that Nigeria was taking the situation seriously.
Then the Saudi oil minister said.
“I understand. I can fully understand your feelings now. But don’t you know When Venezuela and the Ceron coalition are fully in place, the oil share of these countries will drop significantly. Of course, your income will also decrease. Didn’t everyone agree because they knew that?”
Then the Nigerian minister gritted his teeth and said.
“You understand? Saudi Arabia can withstand the current price, but we are all losing money by picking and selling!”
The Nigerian minister said while looking at the other ministers gathered at the OPEC ministerial meeting.
“yes. It is true that we also agreed to pressure Venezuela. But not this one. Even with the shale companies, it wasn’t like this!”
Unlike OPEC, which was united, hundreds of shale companies had high production costs and divided opinions, so they fell out just by shaking oil prices.
But this time, the situation was completely opposite.
“Ninety percent of our total Nigerian exports are crude oil. But that oil price crashed by 20 percent in just two months! As a result, the trade deficit has become serious, and foreign currency is quickly depleted! Until now, we have managed to hold on somehow, but if this situation continues, foreign currency will be exhausted within a few months and the economy will collapse!”
At that, ministers from other countries nodded and spoke.
“That’s right.”
“I was willing to take some, but twenty-two dollars. This is not real.”
Then Egypt sided with Saudi Arabia.
“Still, everyone, let’s hold out a little longer. We are having such a hard time, but Venezuela and the Seron group will be shocked. Shouldn’t we be able to lead the oil market in the future only if we keep it firmly in the beginning?”
However, the remarks rather provoked resentment.
Egypt is also an oil producing country that produces oil as cheaply as Saudi Arabia, so from the standpoint of other member countries, there is no choice but to feel that those who have it add up.
“Put yourself in our shoes and then say that! Right now, we need to contact Venezuela, no, Han Ji-hyeok, and reach an agreement on production cuts!”
The only way to get out of the current ultra-low oil price was for both sides to agree on a gradual reduction in production and control the volume.
Then the Egyptian minister said in a huff.
“How is that different from actually surrendering!”
“First of all, surviving is important, does pride feed you? I keep telling you, we are not Egypt and Saudi Arabia!”
As the ministers debate continued, the Saudi minister sighed.
‘Whoa. In my mind, I want to calm her down by sprinkling money like Seron.’
Ultimately, the key to this situation is money.
If Saudi Arabia, which is still able to afford thanks to the enormous wealth accumulated so far, appeases the member countries by sprinkling money, it is a fight worth fighting for.
But the Saudis couldn’t.
Not because of lack of money, but because of domestic politics.
Saudi Arabia is a monarchical dictatorship, but that’s why I had to pay more attention.
There are hundreds or thousands of royal families in the Saudi royal family, and among them, the royal families with the right to inherit the throne are still looking for an opportunity to occupy the throne.
What if Saudi Arabia spreads money to other countries?
Then it was clear that the royal family with the right of succession would protest and criticize the reign of the current king.
‘I can’t help it, I have to go out strong for now.’
thud!
As the Saudi minister hits the table, the attention of the ministers is focused.
“I just want to say one thing to the ministers. The pain of today will be the foundation of our future. That’s why Saudi Arabia has no intention of giving up. Isn’t it what Seron wants us to quarrel with each other here? Let’s put our trust in Saudi Arabia and hold on a little longer with the pride of being a member of OPEC. Or well, you’re not saying you’re going to leave OPEC, are you?”
At that, the ministers startled and then quietly sat down.
“…I just expressed how hard it is.”
“Whoa. Don’t we have any pride just because we are?”
At that, the Saudi minister smiled and said.
“I’m glad then. I’ll guarantee you instead. Cerron won’t last long, and the moment we win, we’ll all share the sweet fruits.”
No matter how OPEC heads Saudi Arabia, the cooperation of member states is essential to maintain the cartel in the end.
That’s why we use Saudi Arabia’s prestige to suppress dissatisfaction and at the same time hand them carrots.
“Instead, after subduing Seron and Venezuela, we, Saudi Arabia, will actively cut production. So that you can repair the damage you have done now.”
Production cuts are essential to convert low oil prices back to high.
At that time, it means that Saudi Arabia will cover the cut in production, and other member countries should use high oil prices to make up for the loss.
It was a way that only Saudi Arabia, the world’s largest crude oil exporter, could do.
At that, the ministers said with a softened expression.
“Then what is it?”
“Let’s try to hold out a little longer.”
The Saudi minister nodded and said.
“great. It shows the potential of our OPEC!”
*
It’s been months since we started playing a game of chicken with OPEC.
Oil producers who are not members of OPEC scream at the absurd level of oil prices and try to mediate between Saudi Arabia and Seron, but neither Seron nor Saudi Arabia bends their pride.
But in fact, I’m getting short of breath.
“I burned 6 trillion won this month alone.”
The cost of investment in drilling facility construction and the cost of preserving profits to oil refiners due to the collapse in oil prices is increasing exponentially, and now 6 trillion won is flying into the air a month.
Of course, in the meantime, a new refinery was built and the processing capacity increased, but even the crude oil refined at Seron Refinery suffered losses due to the overheated game of chicken.
I gritted my teeth and said.
“… tenacious bastards.”
I’m holding on with the thought that if I’m struggling like this, they’ll have a harder time, but thinking about the money flying away makes me sick to death.
Fortunately, I still have the money I borrowed, so it’s okay, but the damage is only getting bigger as the days go by, so if the money is like this, it will be depleted within two or three months.
“Should I take out more loans?”
It is very uncomfortable that the debt continues to pile up on the Ceron Group, which boasted 100% equity capital, but it is because the only way to raise funds in the current situation is a loan.
“ha. If it weren’t for the revenue preservation given to oil refiners, we could have survived longer.”
The best thing would be to just pile up extra-heavy oil, but the sub-space that was already being filled is already full.
“Are there any stockpile facilities left?”
Of course, as much as that, they searched for countries like Korea to build oil reserves, but all expressed their disapproval because of their relationship with Saudi Arabia.
“Just hold on a little longer, just a little longer.”
While I was wandering around the president’s office and thinking about it, someone knocked on the door of the president’s office and said,
“President, this is Kim Deok-bae.”
“Come on in.”
At my words, Deokbae Kim came inside and said,
“Are you okay?”
I said with a smile.
“It’s okay.”
“I see no sign of OPEC backing down.”
“Of course, it would look like that. But maybe it’s to die for? Now that the oil price is $18, Saudi Arabia is selling at a loss.”
Both sides pretend to be calm, just like before the destruction, but both OPEC and I know.
Now that each other is strangling each other, both sides are out of breath.
I’m just holding back as much as I can with the thought that if I can slow down a bit more, I’ll win.
I said with a sigh.
“ha. If the U.S. gave us stockpile facilities, we would be able to breathe.”
At that time, Deokbae Kim said with a smile.
“Even if it’s not the case, that’s why I came here.”
“yes?”
“Since there is no way to stop the chairman, wouldn’t it be my role to find a way for the company to suffer as little damage as possible?”
I said with my eyes wide open.
“What do you mean?”
“The biggest problem right now is to keep the oil companies’ profits intact. So what we need most is a stockpiling facility to store the surplus oil somewhere. I have been continuously talking with Japan about it.”
japan?!
Japan had a good relationship with me, and it was a country with an oil stockpiling capacity of 490 million barrels.
Of course, we contacted and proposed to stock up on extra-heavy oil, but Japan was also reluctant to import 80 percent of its crude oil from Saudi Arabia, so it was eventually canceled.
But suddenly, Deokbae Kim mentioned Japan.
“Isn’t Japan refusing?”
“you’re right. So I kept meeting and persuading him. and······.”
Deokbae Kim said with a smile.
“We have been promised stockpiling facilities of up to 50 million barrels.”
“Fifty million barrels!”
As the Seron refinery expands, it is currently refining 500,000 barrels out of 1.3 million barrels per day, but there are still 800,000 barrels left.
In order to process this 800,000 barrels, the oil refinery was enduring huge losses by putting money on it, and having 50 million barrels of free space here meant that it was possible to earn at least two months more time.
“Of course there are conditions. Construction of a Seron oil refinery in Japan and priority supply of crude oil.”
Don’t think you’re asking for too much, at best, by giving up some stockpiling facilities.
This is because Japan has decided to give Ceron’s hand a little more than between OPEC, Seron, and the Venezuelan Union.
“I wasn’t sure if the results would come out, so I didn’t tell you, and I was going ahead alone, but if that made you uncomfortable…”
I jumped up and hugged Deokbae Kim.
“What an inconvenience! I feel like I’ve won thousands of horses!”
I said with a thumbs up.
“As expected, our vice president! also! also!”
In the process of persuading Japan, he must have gone through all the hardships.
I also knew that the process would be difficult, so I gave up right away and was working in a different direction.
But, while I was immersed in the game of chicken, I was persuading Japan for the Seron Group behind the scenes.
“Thanks to Nakamura’s guild leader’s active help, I was able to persuade him relatively easily.”
He said out of habit that he would repay the favor of prosthetic limbs and prosthetic eyes, and Nakamura also helped.
“As expected, people should live kindly and see. nice!”
I said with a grin.
“Anyway, 50 million barrels, this is the end of OPEC.”
The final puzzle of this chicken game is complete.
Saudi Arabia alone may not know it, but the rest of the OPEC members will not be able to endure the increased time of the two months.
“ruler. Let’s wrap up. Time to crown the true winner of this game of chicken.”