With the help of Japan, I was able to afford it, and I continued to endure and endure.
It’s literally a crazy game of chicken, you die or I live.
Although oil prices have fallen this much temporarily in the chicken game between OPEC and shale companies, this is the first time such ultra-low oil prices have lasted for such a long time.
“You said Nigeria would withdraw if it didn’t negotiate with us?”
Finally, a rupture is heard from inside OPEC.
CIA Kim Young-tae nodded and said.
“yes. Maybe it’s because I want to somehow end this fight by pressing Saudi Arabia rather than really thinking about leaving. In any case, many member states agreed with Nigeria’s proclamation. Everything except Saudi Arabia and Egypt.”
In other words, except for Saudi Arabia, which has enormous wealth, and Egypt, which has excellent means of earning foreign currency, such as tourism and the Suez Canal, all have reached their limits.
I said with a grin.
“Now I have to move slowly.”
Now it is my fight to destroy OPEC with the Saudis who want to protect OPEC.
“Please contact President Pablo. Ask the other OPEC members to propose a new consultative body of our own.”
Venezuela is a member of OPEC, but has become a de facto main enemy.
If such Venezuela persuades other member states to create a new organization and become independent, Saudi Arabia’s oil hegemony will collapse.
Of course, there is no way that member states will easily agree.
However, each of these actions will be felt as a great threat to Saudi Arabia, and since other member states are not fools, they will not reject Venezuela’s proposal at least with a single stroke.
Saudi Arabia will move only when they go out like that.
To be honest, at this point, from the standpoint of the member states, whether it’s Seron or Saudi, anyone is fine, so you don’t want one side to surrender.
“It’s a new consultative body…. The Saudis must be frightened.”
“yes. If that happens, won’t there be any reaction? Negotiated or whatever.”
Perhaps, if a new consultative body is discussed in earnest, Saudi Arabia will eventually negotiate with us.
And in the negotiations, it has a clear advantage and ends this war.
I said with a grin.
“I’m looking forward to the Saudi response.”
*
The Saudi government was shocked when Venezuela contacted member states to form a new consultative body to withdraw following the threat of membership withdrawal.
“What the hell is this! To leave and create a new council!”
At the king’s words, the oil minister broke into a cold sweat.
“Hey, don’t worry. These are all tricks of Seron to put pressure on us. In the first place, since ultra-heavy oil is the main focus, there is nothing to gain from joining hands with Venezuela from the member states’ point of view.”
“The ministers are already having a meeting, so how can you be sure of that?”
“That, that’s…”
“ha.”
The king sighed and said.
“Minister.”
“Yes, Your Majesty.”
“I agree with you. That the combination of Venezuela and Seron would threaten the future of Saudi Arabia. by the way. Shouldn’t the present be ruined because of that future?”
The king glared at the oil minister and said.
“OPEC must be maintained. If OPEC collapses, the oil order itself we have built will collapse.”
The oil minister said urgently.
“Don’t worry. The reason why the taxon came out like that is because the taxon has also reached its limit. If you hold out just a little longer…”
At that, the king exclaimed.
“Just a little more, a little more, and now I’ve come this far! Among member countries, there are already countries that cannot pay the borrowed money due to a lack of foreign currency! can you really be sure That Seron will collapse sooner or later?”
Then, the oil minister could not answer anything.
“Enough here. We, Saudi Arabia, are also suffering a lot of damage right now, even though we are preparing to increase production, because of one country that produces at most 1.3 million barrels a day.”
“Ha, but, Your Majesty. If that happens, His Majesty’s dignity will be damaged…”
“Is there anything that hurts your pride more than the news that OPEC is faltering? It would be less humiliating to call a truce before then. Let’s negotiate with Saeron and end by making small concessions to each other.”
No matter how strongly the oil minister pushes, in the end, the king’s word is no different from the law in Saudi Arabia, the monarchy.
The king himself goes so far, what more can a minister say here?
Eventually, the oil minister lowered his head and said.
“···All right.”
“Instead, we must never look like we lost. Just as we made concessions with great generosity. Do you understand what I mean?”
“of course. We will never let that happen.”
*
Saudi Arabia eventually proposed negotiations to cut production when the situation of member countries’ collective departure was captured and this became news.
Unsurprisingly, these negotiations have attracted the attention of many countries and people.
The future stock price will fluctuate depending on the outcome of this negotiation.
With just the news of immediate negotiations, the price of oil, which had been hovering around $18, skyrocketed to $28 in an instant.
I said with a relaxed expression.
“Nice to meet you, Minister.”
The Minister’s interpreter then interprets the Minister’s words.
“Nice to meet you, Chairman Han.”
“There has been too little without a proper conversation. I hope there will be good results from this negotiation.”
“It is the same.”
“ruler. So, shall we begin negotiations in earnest? Let’s start with the minister.”
“Since this ultra-low oil price phenomenon is due to an increase in production that exceeds demand, how about withdrawing the plan to increase production announced by both sides and going back to the beginning?”
“hmm? first? Are you telling me to be satisfied with 1.3 million barrels?”
“That’s right.”
You’re not ready for the meeting yet.
I said with a smile.
“I am sure you are mistaken, but it was the Saudis who ignited the fight. Venezuela’s goal was to simply increase production from 1 million to 300,000 barrels and sequentially increase it to 2 million. But isn’t it only good for Saudi Arabia to ignore all of them and go back to normal? And one more thing. Why is there no word on the Venezuelan extra-heavy oil quota? That’s what caused this uproar.”
“That has nothing to do with the current production cut agreement. That will be separate later…”
“no. That is the crux of this consultation. There will be no negotiations unless there is a preemptive promise not to force such an offer again in the future.”
Then the minister was silent for a moment.
“great. I promise you that.”
okay.
You have crossed the most important hurdle.
I said with a smile on my face.
“is it so. Isn’t that interference in internal affairs in the first place? Venezuela is free to sell their crude oil to whom. Now let’s talk about production cuts, shall we?”
What remains now is how much concessions will be made to end this ultra-low oil price and raise oil prices again.
Of course, the more production cuts, the lower the market share.
“1.3 million doesn’t make sense. Just simply subtract the percentage.”
“Are you talking about proportions?”
“yes. According to our own research, it is predicted that oil prices will rise to the level of $ 60 only if production is cut by 8 million barrels. So we’re dividing this by a percentage. Venezuela’s drilling capacity is currently increasing production to 1.3 million barrels by 1.7 million barrels, with a planned increase of 2 million barrels in the future. A total of 5 million. And OPEC combined existing production and increased production plans to 32 million.”
I said with a bright smile.
“As a percentage, Venezuela is 15 percent. So, we will cut production by 1.2 million barrels, which is 15 percent of the 8 million barrels. Cut the rest from OPEC.”
It was explained as if it were fair, but in fact it was the complete opposite.
The amount of increased production announced by both sides is similar, but the reduction in production includes the existing production, so it is overwhelmingly advantageous to Venezuela, which is frantically inflated.
As a simple example, before I intervened, Venezuela was 1 million versus OPEC 27 million, but if this production cut is followed, Venezuela will increase to 3.8 million while OPEC will shrink to 25.2 million.
Namely, the way Venezuela is taking away share from OPEC.
Naturally, the oil minister protests.
“What nonsense is that! Existing production needs to be calculated separately! It is only right for both sides to withdraw all production increase plans!”
That doesn’t work.
Then, in the end, it’s 1.3 million again.
“Minister, let’s be honest. Saudi Arabia attacked first. But why pay half the settlement? The perpetrator is Saudi Arabia and the victim is us. But is the perpetrator very wealthy? Then the perpetrator will have to pay more.”
At my words, the minister bit his lip and said.
“I am willing to make some concessions. But this offer is too much.”
I said with a firm expression.
“It is rather the opposite. For me, a production cut of 1.2 million is a big concession, so just accept it.”
Of course it’s a lie.
Since the plan to increase production by 2 million barrels is only a plan, how difficult is it to cut production by 1.2 million there?
You just have to wipe your mouth.
But it’s a game that everyone won, so there’s no need to watch it, right?
“Absolutely unacceptable. At least Venezuela needs to cut production by 3 million.”
I gave up a lot though.
Of course, I have no intention of accepting it.
They say that if you cut production by 3 million, you will have to demolish part of the drilling facility that you are currently making beyond the 2 million that you have only brushed off. Why am I?
I got up and said.
“Then the negotiations are a failure.”
Then the minister said with a puzzled expression.
“Wait a minute. It has only been ten minutes since we started negotiating!”
“I don’t think you are ready to negotiate.”
I said as I grabbed the conference room door handle.
“Let’s continue. Saudi Arabia and we still have room, right? Of course what…”
I said with a grin.
“Other members may be different.”
“for a moment!”
Ignoring the minister’s words, I opened the door and went out and told the people who were waiting.
“Negotiation failed. Let’s go back.”
*
When the news of the negotiations failed, the price of oil, which had soared, plummeted to $20 again.
Of course, member states and oil-producing countries, who were expecting a deal, wrap their heads again and press Saudi Arabia.
I really can’t stand it any longer.
A week after the negotiations everyone was waiting for failed.
“Chairman Han.”
The Saudi ambassador to Korea, not the oil minister, secretly visited me.
“A little more concession, please.”
Since it is not an official table, the Saudi ambassador appears quite low-key.
“I made enough concessions.”
“…We, the Saudis, will never accept that condition.”
“Because I won’t accept it unless it’s on this condition.”
“Then we have no choice but to play chicken again.”
Are you coming out strong to gain a negotiating advantage?
“Then let’s continue, okay? All member states will go out.”
“Even if member states leave OPEC, this condition is not enough.”
hmm.
what?
I guess that’s sincere.
“Why?”
“Because Saudi Arabia is a monarchy.”
ah.
“Saudi is a country that claims to be the head of OPEC and the defender of Islam at the same time. Would such a country accept negotiations on these humiliating terms? This is practically the same as admitting defeat. It would be better to continue playing a game of chicken to protect His Majesty the King and Saudi pride.”
“Tsk.”
I hate Islam because of this.
It is the Islamic countries that the ridiculous decision to choose religion and pride before practicality is justified by the name Allah.
Saudi Arabia is especially sensitive to such a reputation because it is a monarchy.
‘I think that’s real.’
In the first place, unless I send some kind of army to destroy Saudi Arabia, we have to negotiate in the end.
However, the other side is a situation where pride is at stake and you should never create a losing appearance.
I said a moment of silence.
“Then how much do you want?”
“The Maginot Line we thought was Venezuela cutting production by 3 million barrels.”
“The Minister already said that, and I declined.”
“Of course you did. But the details will be a bit different. To explain simply, we are just announcing that production will be cut.”
Ohh?
“Please explain in detail.”
“Wouldn’t it be necessary to close some drilling rigs in Venezuela if we cut production by 3 million barrels now?”
“Yes.”
“It is only announcing a production cut of 3 million and continuing to build drilling facilities. Then, when it is completed, we go there and announce an additional production increase of 1 million barrels.”
“aha! So, let’s go to Sammosa Jo?”
“Exactly.”
First of all, the announcement will be done as Saudi wants and take care of its pride, but later Venezuela will announce additional production increase and do as originally planned.
“Not bad.”
This is why I like Islam.
It’s perfect for me to take care of since you throw away the silly because of religion and pride, right?
They say that if you take care of your pride, they will concede on their own.
“Then the official announcement is a 3 million barrel production cut, and the actual production cut is 2 million barrels, right?”
“you’re right.”
You sent an ambassador to make this kind of behind-the-scenes proposal.
Originally, I thought of cutting production by 1.2 million barrels, but that’s the first claim, and it’s perfect for me as my last line was 2 million barrels.
But that alone is a bit disappointing.
I said with a grin.
“If you cut production by 3 million barrels like that, it will look like a draw because we compromised.”
“you’re right.”
“Then shouldn’t I also get paid for making it a draw?”
Instead of taking care of my pride, I should get paid for taking care of myself.
The Saudi ambassador sighed.
“ha. Do you want anything?”
“hmm.”
You said you’d get a price, but since it’s a secret deal, you can’t ask for compensation for damage, can you?
what’s good
As I pondered for a while, a thought passed through my mind.
‘for a moment. secret deal? If it’s a deal that can be done in secret… an armed group!’
Among the members of OPEC, the Middle East countries are all wealthy Muslim countries.
And these countries wield absolute influence in the Islamic world.
Of course, the influence also includes armed groups.
After all, armed groups also need money, and the only large-scale organization that can provide that money is the same Islamic country and rich oil-producing countries.
Then, what if we take this opportunity to save face from Saudi Arabia and other Middle Eastern countries that are members of OPEC and obtain a promise to stop armed groups from terrorizing Seron?
I thought with a grin.
“Is it completely dog profit?”
From nob le mtl dot com
Middle Eastern oil-producing countries, led by Saudi Arabia, save face by wrapping it up as a truce rather than defeat, and I like getting a card to put pressure on armed groups that were out of control.
What if an armed group opposes me?
Then I can cooperate with the CIA to attack from the outside, while pushing these oil-producing countries into a game of chicken to shake up the armed groups from within.
‘Saudi Arabia and OPEC take care of face, I take care of profit. Isn’t that perfect?’
Having made my decision after much consideration, I spoke to the Saudi ambassador.
“Please be honest. Are there Saudi-sponsored armed groups in the Middle East?”
Then the Saudi ambassador stunned and said.
“We, the Saudis, do not support such illegal armed groups.”
okay.
Officially it will.
How can you openly support such a terrorist organization?
“Well, in any case, can you help me to prevent those armed groups from attacking Cerron any more?”
“I’ll say it again, we Saudi Arabia are armed with such illegal…”
“Just tell me my story, I’m not looking for a definitive answer.”
I looked at the Saudi ambassador and said.
“Announce little things, Saudi Arabia will do whatever you want. In addition, Seron is willing to cooperate with Saudi Arabia in the future. The beginning wasn’t beautiful, but anyway, now that we’re all selling oil together, what’s the point of fighting among ourselves and losing money? However, I felt that if an armed group attacked Cerron and suffered losses, I would be very offended.”
“Mmm.”
“I want the OPEC Middle East countries to manage those sloppy things. How is it?”
I said with a bright smile.
“OPEC and Saudi Arabia are good because they can save face, and I like being able to manage armed groups. I think this is a win-win for both of us.”